How many cars will take the start at Bahrain ?

So, testing is done. Time for the sweepstake on the outcomes.

• How many cars will take the start ? (by which I mean - obviously, move off the grid or get out of the pitlane after the lights are out. Starting the formation lap doesn't count !)
  
• How many will get to halfway ?

I suppose answers in the range 0-28 would be in the betting.

I'm gonna say that Lotus will go well, Virgin (my boys) will make fools of themselves. Campos will start 1 car. USF1 won't and nor will Stefan.

So that gives me 25 starters.

By halfway, Virgin, Campos, 1 Lotus and 2 random others will have dropped it, giving me:

19 runners at halfway

Serious miscounting issue alert !!! Of course, if USF1 don't start and Campos start 1 - that'll be 23 starters and 17 running past halfway. Duh !

22 will start with a view to actually competing.

USF1 wont be there,

Campos may show and run tests with Senna, might take start but will probably trundle back to pits soon after.

Stefan GP will be there chomping to get out and race but FIA red tape will probably prevent them despite vacant grid spots existing.

Now predictions for performance gets more tricky.  

Fortunatly it appears we have no stand out dominant team at this stage such as seen last season. Ferrari have put in the most milage and track hours and are back up the front end. Mclaren and Red Bull have put in significanlty less mileage but are also right at the front. Its impossible to pick a favorite from those three. 

Mercedes wont enjoy the dominant edge that Brawn had last year and the have been swallowed up by the leading rivals. They may be a shade off but if Schuey is back on song and Rosberg can show race winning ability then they will make things an extremely close 4 way team fight at the front.

Williams and Sauber have sound cars and could suprise. William in particular have shown very good pace with the customer Cosworth engine whcih means the new Cosworth teams will not be able to blame power for their results in year one.

Renault might have to settle for another year in the mid pack along with Force India and Torro Rosso

Lotus will edge Virgin at the start but this will be a very close battle, not to mention a personal one between the two airline boss owners who have a bet on with each other.

USF1 will go down in history as a non starter

Campos might make it but only afford to run one car. Not sure they will have finance to run the full season.

Stefan GP have got a brilliant website. "Amateurish" doesn't quite cover it. Henceforth, they shall be called Borat GP.

http://www.stefangp.com/

Sadly they've now removed the funniest of the press releases, but still you wouldn't confuse them with Lotus or Virgin.

As a self-professed Midpack expert, I think Renault are in for a shocking season. But Sauber and Williams could have more fun than in recent years.

Wow, that certainly does inspire....not   lol    

Doesnt look like its functional now but the Campos website was equally lame and looked like it had been built during a siesta one day as an afterthough.

Why Prodrive was passed over compared to some of these amateur looking outfits i've no idea.

SGP did try to merge with USF1, and Hurley was for it.  It was one of the USF1 main people (don't know which) who killed the talks.  I'm guessing that is the end of USF1 and the start of SGP.  It makes sense at this point for Hurley to completely bail on USF1 and back SGP.

I think SGP does make the grid.  Their equipment is there, and Todt should be eager to show that the FIA can respond quickly when it needs to (they still need to show they won't repeat the USGP tire debacle).  And getting Villeneuve on the grid would be a big deal to throw gas on the fire of hype going on.  Yet another world champion on the grid.

Campos will be on the grid, but neither car will get to halfway.  Neither may even get to lap 2, although if they can run, they will, for test laps.  They probably pit a lot and treat it as a straight test (Bahrain is a good test track).  Still, neither makes it to halfway distance, although they may both be on track after the leaders get halfway distance.

So I think the grid has 28 cars.  Virgin tries but still has hydraulic problems (remember the 90s hydraulic problems of Williams...they took a whole season getting a handle on that, and that was WIlliams in their prime).  Both Virgins DNF, but show flashes of pace.  Lotus finishes both cars with no flashes of pace.  They are the last two cars running.  SGP finishes one car, wrecks the other.  Among the others, there are some DNFs, but most if not all that make it past T1 make it halfway.  Scratch two cars in T1 race 1.

So 28 start, 21 make halfway, 17 finish.

Some other predictions, most probably way wrong, but this is the time for silly fun predictions.  Alonso and Massa bring back some of the Senna vs. Prost qual juice.  In races, I think Alonso not only beats Massa, but is the likely front runner early on.  I think Schumi and Vettel are going to be his main competitors for the DC in the long run.  Schumi is more than a star driver, he is a development engineer of sorts.  By the end the Mercedes could be the best car with one of the best three overall drivers (the others being Alonso and Vettel).  LH is better than everyone else in some isolated facets, by a significant and useful margin (in particular, braking), but I think he gets flustered on three fronts:  the relentless machine on track that is Schumi, and the much better equipment preservation (in particular, tires) Button will get on the same car, and the loss of his huge gap over everyone else in rain driving he had his whole career (Schumi and Vettel can at least match him in the rain).  I do think LH nabs a lots of poles, maybe even more than Alonso, since Alonso and Massa will likely split Ferrari friendly tracks in qual.  Rosberg will shine from time to time, but unfortunately, he is Schumi-lite, meaning his strengths are very in line with Schumi's, but Schumi's are better...except maybe qual, depending on how smart Schumi gets with tire preservation in qual.  Poor Kubica.  I now think we'll never know how good he could have been.  His Renault stint will take him too far in age past the next wave of recruits to get a shot at a top car.  Then there is Vettel.  If anyone is going to eclipse Schumi as the 'machine' it'll be Vettel.  He too, like Rosberg, has strengths in the same facets as Schumi, but in Vettel's case, he can match Schumi in many of them.  And RBR has Newey, which is a really big deal.  I am of course going to pull for Glock to have some great races.  He does the most with what he has talent wise as far as I can tell.  He is like the opposite of Kimi (even though I liked Kimi too, for pure driving style reasons), where Kimi had possibly the most sheer talent, but only tapped it just enough to stay awake during races.  Glock is mediocre (for F1) talent wise, but is smart and maximizes it at all times.   (BTW, 2001 is a great season to watch, as it has Alonso, Kimi, and Montoya in their rookie seasons.  Man, was Montoya good before he got disillusioned by McLaren later.  He outright passed Schumi at Interlagos and got pole at Spa among other flashes...in a marginal Williams).